East Central Florida Regional Planning Council – Hagan Han – 2025

Summary

Hagan developed science-based targets and mitigation strategies to cut agricultural and land use emissions in East Central Florida.

Goals

The East Central Florida Regional Resilience Collaborative, representing eight counties and 78 cities in the East Central Florida region, is developing an integrated regional climate action plan to achieve its regional Science Based Target (SBT) of 54.3% by 2030. As part of this effort, Hagan was tasked with setting science-based targets and mitigation measures for the agricultural and land use sector while integrating these efforts with regional conservation priorities.

Solutions

Hagan began by analyzing the regional greenhouse gas inventories from 2019, identifying cattle-related methane and nitrous oxide emissions, along with tree canopy loss as the major emission drivers for the sector. Using Science Based Targets Initiative guidance, he recommended a beef commodity target of 24% emissions reduction by 2030 and 72% emissions reduction by 2050 for the agriculture sector, and a 30.3% reduction and 83.9% emissions reduction by 2050 for the land use sector. To develop strategies to meet these targets, he analyzed literature on commercially viable technologies along with the associated regulatory authority, implementation partners, and costs. Proposed mitigation measures include improved cattle feed and manure management practices, expanded conservation of high-priority lands, and adoption of a net cumulative tree canopy gain target. To quantify emissions avoided through conservation and produce more granular projections of future land use emissions, he built a model integrating United States Geological Survey national land cover data, regional future land use plans from local governments, and region-specific emission factors from the greenhouse gas inventory.

Potential Impact

If implemented, these recommendations would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 938,000 tonnes annually by 2030, and2.4 million metric tonnes annually by 2050. Beyond emissions reductions, these strategies would expand natural systems, bolster climate resilience, and deliver co-benefits such as improved air quality, storm protection, and biodiversity.